Fantasy Football Mock Draft ADP Report: Clyde Edwards-Helaire rising, Cam Akers falling

Using average draft position (ADP) from mock drafts when drafting your fantasy football team is helpful, but it does come with one caveat: You must be aware of what the ADP is derived from, especially the period of time it covers. When there is breaking news, we can see a player significantly fall or rise from where their current ADP is, and if you are sleeping, you’ll either miss out on someone or draft someone way too early.

Things can change in a hurry in the month leading up to the season, and even with no preseason games, 2020 will be no different. We’ll continue to study the mock draft data and report here every week on the biggest ADP movers.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: ADP Risers

With the opting out of Damien Williams from the Chiefs’ season, the Clyde Edwards-Helaire hype has gone into hyper drive. CEH’s ADP before the announcement was 29 on NFFC over 438 12-team drafts. In the 16 drafts since, his ADP has risen to 7.63. Last year, Josh Jacobs had an ADP of 33.1 per Fantasy Football Calculator. The last two rookie running backs to crack first-round ADP were Saquon Barkley in 2018 and Ezekiel Elliot in ’16. The difference? Both were top-rated running backs being drafted to be the focus of their team’s offense.

Kansas City took Edwards-Helaire to be a complementary back to Williams in an offense with a passing focus. He was taken before three running backs that were ranked higher pre-draft in Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Swift and J.K. Dobbins. With his ADP rising to the mid-to-late first round, he being drafted before Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb. It’s up to you to take this risk.

On the other end of the spectrum is Deebo Samuel. Samuel suffered a Jones fracture in mid-June and had surgery to fix it. Typical recovery time for this injury is six-to-eight weeks without surgery, but athletes usually have surgery to speed up the process. The difficulty with this fracture is it’s in an area of low blood supply, which can slow the healing process. Kevin Durant suffered the same injury and ended up having three surgeries over six months due to complications. Samuel’s ADP of 94 (WR38) since the surgery is optimistic. Yes, you may want to take a chance that he comes back soon and only misses a few games, but taking him ahead of Jamison Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders and Christian Kirk may lead you to missing out on some steady producers. If Samuel has an extended absence, your bench production is likely to suffer.

With the announcement of both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out due to Covid concerns, look for a trio of Dolphin wide receivers to rise in ADP. Preston Williams is recovering from an ACL tear suffered last season but has just been given full clearance for football activities. His ADP over the last week is 146, but he has gone as early as 99th. Watch for his stock to rise in the next few weeks. Isaiah Ford and Jakeem Grant are the other two who should benefit from the announcements. Keep an eye out for news from Dolphins camp, but with the extended use of three-wideout sets and the always-present injury bug, they could be in for a great increase in their snap counts.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: ADP Fallers

Taking an ADP hit was Cam Akers with the announcement that the Rams will be going with the dreaded RBBC. Prior to the July 21 statement by Sean McVay that the Rams were going to try to copy Kyle Shanahan’s running back-by-committee approach, Akers’ ADP was 50. In the drafts since it has dropped to 56, and I expect it may drop further. In a corollary move, the ADP of Darrell Henderson has moved up a round, as his snaps are now expected to increase compared to prior to the announcement. Akers is still the best bet to take control over the backfield, as both Henderson and Malcolm Brown failed to take control last year during Todd Gurley’s absences. Consider taking Jordan Howard, who is being taken after Akers if you don’t want to take the risk.

Staying with the Rams theme, Tyler Higbee is another ADP hype cautionary tale. His production last year was mainly due to the absence of Gerald Everett. When they both played, Everett was by far the more targeted receiver. Higbee is currently going as TE6 over the past month with an ADP of 83 overall. Everett’s ADP is 208 and should be higher than that. This could easily be a tale of the bargain and the bust. Higbee went from less than four targets a game to 11-14 over the past four games. His snap counts went from the 55-65-percent range to around 90. He is being drafted as if Everett doesn’t exist. I’d temper your expectations.

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