Iowa vs. Iowa State odds, prediction, betting trends for Saturdays top-10 showdown

It’s fair to say it’s the biggest game in the history of the Iowa-Iowa State football rivalry. 

No. 10 Iowa faces No. 9 Iowa State in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday. The game is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC. This is the first top-10 showdown between the Hawkeyes and Cyclones. 

Iowa State also will welcome ESPN’s College Football GameDay to Ames for the event. The Cyclones won their opener against Northern Iowa 16-10, and the cast of Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar and Mike Rose returned to school for games like this under coach Matt Campbell. 

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Iowa also has an experienced roster back with veteran coach Kirk Ferentz. Spencer Petras played well in the opener, and the defense dominated in a 34-6 victory against Indiana. Will the Hawkeyes knock off two ranked opponents in two weeks? 

Here’s everything to know about betting on the ABC afternoon game between Iowa and Iowa State:

Iowa vs. Iowa State odds

Three trends to know  

— The Hawkeyes are 6-5 S/U against Iowa State on the road since Ferentz took over in 1999, but they have won five of the last six meetings at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa State hasn’t beat Iowa at home since a 44-41 thriller in 2011. 

— Campbell is 0-4 S/U against Iowa. The last three meetings have been decided by a combined total of 14 points. 

— The Hawkeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an away underdog. The Cyclones are 15-8 ATS against ranked opponents under Campbell. 

Three things to watch  

Can Breece Hall get going? Northern Iowa keyed in on Hall, who had 23 carries for 72 yards in the opener. Iowa limited Indiana to 2.5 yards per carry and linebackers Seth Benson and Jack Campbell combined for 16 tackles. The Cyclones will give Hall another 20 carries, but he will have to be active in the receiving game to test those disciplined Iowa linebackers. That’s a huge matchup within the game, and Iowa State needs to win it. 

Will Charlie Kolar play? Kolar, a SN Preseason All-American, missed the opener with a lower body injury. He did participate in pregame warmups, and his presence would be huge for Purdy in the passing game. That would open the middle of the field, and Xavier Hutchinson can stay on the outside. Iowa senior cornerback Riley Moss has two picks in the opener. 

—  Spencer Petras on third down. For all the Hawkeyes did right in the opener, they still converted just 4 of 12 on third down. Iowa State allowed 8 of 17 conversions in their win. On the road, Petras is going to have to make a handful of clutch throws to keep drives alive. He hit 13 of 27 passes, and tight end Sam LaPorta will be on display in those situations. 

Stat that matters

The Hawkeyes have won the last five meetings, including four against Campbell, with a simple recipe for success. Iowa has won the rushing battle by an average of 168-84 in those games, and the Hawkeyes have committed just one turnover. That’s a +5 advantage over five games that makes the difference in a rivalry game. 

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction

Maybe this is why Iowa State had trouble shaking off Northern Iowa this week. It’s a big moment, and the backdrop of the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11 will only add to what should be a charged-up atmosphere. Iowa might be the underdog, but the pressure is on the Cyclones in this game. It will be tight in the fourth quarter, and Purdy and Hall combine to lead the game-winning drive in dramatic fashion. 

Final score: Iowa State 27, Iowa 24 

 

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