Ranking NFL’s six open head coaching jobs in 2021 from worst to first
"Black Monday" traditionally casts a pall over the NFL's calendar, a fraught time when head coaches and, typically, their staffs are fired en masse – organizational upheaval left in the aftermath along with so many football families thrust into personal chaos.
However Black Monday has softened to shades of slate in recent years. Many clubs opt to pivot well before a lost season ends, if not at least aborting the drama of a foregone conclusion by summarily firing coaches hours after the regular-season finale.
The 2020 campaign has largely been following that pattern, three coaches terminated well in advance of Week 17 before the Jets expectedly jettisoned Adam Gase on Sunday night.
The Jaguars did wait until Monday morning to cut the cord with Doug Marrone. The Chargers followed a few hours later, giving Anthony Lynn the pink slip. Still, a mammoth Monday bloodletting doesn't seem likely at this point.
So, for now, let's assess the desirability of the six league jobs that are officially available:
BLACK MONDAY: Coaching news and rumors
32 THINGS WE LEARNED: From Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season
NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE: Field finalized as 7 teams clinch berths, Packers take NFC's bye
6. Atlanta Falcons
Pros: They have the fourth pick of the 2021 draft, so a premium prospect should be inbound. And though a nucleus of veteran players has never seemingly recovered from the Super Bowl LI collapse following the 2016 season, this roster is hardly devoid of talent. WR Calvin Ridley, CB A.J. Terrell and DL Grady Jarrett should form the vanguard of the next-gen Falcons.
Owner Arthur Blank is upportive if publicly hands off and gives his leaders leeway to rectify mistakes.
Cons: With so many bloated contracts, the salary situation is untenable. Atlanta needs to shed nearly $25 million, per Over The Cap, by the start of the new league year in March to merely be cap-compliant. That could mean hard decisions as it pertains to the club's best-paid players, namely QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones.
Ryan continues to play at a high level but will be 36 in May and hasn't overseen a playoff push in the past three seasons. Jones, who will be 32 next month, remains elite when he's on the field – which wasn't often enough in 2020, when he missed seven games. If the duo sticks around – with or without restructured deals – a decidedly average but overpaid defense seems due for an overhaul.
5. Detroit Lions
Pros: They're the only team that's existed for the entirety of the Super Bowl era yet never appeared on Super Sunday – meaning there's a unique opportunity to plant your flag by revitalizing one of the league's most downtrodden franchises … if one considers that a plus. Pro Bowl TE T.J. Hockenson, CB Jeff Okudah, RB D'Andre Swift and a solid offensive line project as building blocks. Detroit will pick seventh in the upcoming draft.
Cons: The Lions have an occasionally spectacular quarterback in Matthew Stafford. But he'll be 33 next month, is often battered by injuries and has never led this team to a playoff win in his 12-season tenure. The next regime must decide whether to reboot the position and move on from Stafford, who has two years remaining on his contract, or otherwise hope he can suddenly spark a winner in the midst of a philosophical makeover from the Matt Patricia tenure.
Defensively, Detroit surrendered the most points and yards in the league, so little reason for near-term optimism on that front. And it won't be easy to buy an influx of help given there's only projected to be $12.2 million in salary cap space available this year.
4. Houston Texans
Pros: QB Deshaun Watson is only 25 and somehow managed to craft his best statistical season despite losing his best receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) and playing amid challenging circumstances, including the ouster of coach/GM Bill O'Brien after an 0-4 start. The presence of a franchise quarterback of this caliber, with seemingly so many good years ahead of him, should be a significant selling point.
Cons: The Dolphins own Houston's first- and second-round picks in the extended wake of O'Brien's 2019 trade for LT Laremy Tunsil. Houston is also currently projected to be in a $14 million cap deficit – which will make it challenging to re-sign a free agent like WR Will Fuller V.
On the field, no team was worse against the run, and the defense ranked third from the bottom overall. Longtime star DE J.J. Watt is almost 32, comes off his least productive full season and even seemed to rail against the team's preparedness in recent weeks. He recently admitted his future with the club is unclear, his contract guarantees exhausted and one year (at $17.5 million) left on his deal.
3. New York Jets
Pros: Holdover GM Joe Douglas is looking at roughly $72 million in cap space this year. He also owns the No. 2 overall pick of the draft, plus Seattle's first- and third-rounders (and another Round 1 selection in 2022) thanks to the Jamal Adams trade. And Douglas' first draft, notably rookie LT Mekhi Becton and WR Denzel Mims, showed significant flashes of promise.
Cons: The Jets' shocking pair of December wins, following the club's 0-13 start, has almost surely cost them the opportunity to draft Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, who's widely regarded as a generational prospect. Now Douglas and Co. must decide whether to reset the position – BYU's Zach Wilson and Ohio State's Justin Fields appear to be the best options behind Lawrence – or hope that Sam Darnold can finally flourish with a new staff and a better supporting cast.
However the other dilemma with Darnold, who's largely disappointed in his three seasons, is financial. The Jets must decide this spring whether to pick up his fifth-year option. But whether they do or don't, the third pick of the 2018 draft will soon need a new contract, and his résumé to date doesn't support an extensive reinvestment.
The QB conundrum aside, this roster is mostly studded with role players and stopgaps. The team MVP in 2020 was probably S Marcus Maye, and he's headed for free agency.
One other significant question: What will owner Woody Johnson's role be once he returns from his post as the United States ambassador to the United Kingdom? Johnson's brother, Christopher, has served as CEO and chairman since Woody's political appointment and was responsible for the hiring (and Sunday's firing) of Gase.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Pros: They appear set at perhaps the two most important positions on a football team. QB Justin Herbert seems likely to win 2020 offensive rookie of the year honors after a record-setting season that included 31 TD passes. On the other side of the ball, Joey Bosa is one of the league's premier pass rushers – though he's only managed to play a full 16 games twice in his five-year career.
WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and S Derwin James should further form what could be an enviable foundation – assuming this group, notably James, can stay healthy. The Chargers also project to have more than $30 million in cap space, which could give them the option to re-sign pending free agents like DE Melvin Ingram, LB Denzel Perryman and/or TE Hunter Henry while exploring other options.
(And who wouldn't want to live in temperate Southern California or call glitzy new SoFi Stadium home?)
Cons: Probably fewer significant drawbacks here than most open jobs. The Bolts finished with the offense and defense ranked in the top 10 overall – though the O-line and secondary loom as problem areas. And Herbert not withstanding, quite a few recent draft picks need to start producing.
But whoever takes over will primarily have to teach this team better situational football and how to win close games given 16 of the Chargers' 20 losses over the past two years have been by a margin of one score. Clock management seemed like a bugaboo for Lynn. And the special teams were so poor in 2020, Lynn cycled through coordinators before deciding to coach the unit himself.
QB Justin Herbert (10) and the Chargers got the better of the Jaguars in Week 7. (Photo: Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY Sport)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pros: Their greatest asset seems to be ownership of the No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft, a selection the football world has long designated for Lawrence – regarded as a surefire passing prospect from the same "can't miss" hype machine that anointed John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
But Lawrence isn't the only reason to believe an expeditious rebuild is possible. The Jags are projected to have a league-high $77.6 million in cap space. They own the Rams' 2021 first-rounder (acquired in the Jalen Ramsey deal) and the Vikings' 2021 second-rounder (acquired in the Yannick Ngakoue deal) – and extra picks in Rounds 4 and 5 to boot. Throw in promising 2020 rookies like DE/OLB K'Lavon Chaisson, CB CJ Henderson, RB James Robinson and WR Laviska Shenault and other youngsters (DE/OLB Josh Allen, WR DJ Chark, LB Myles Jack) and there appears to be a surprisingly flush roster despite this season's franchise-worst 1-15 record.
It also must be noted that Shad Khan has generally shown atypical patience for an NFL owner and doesn't seem inclined to operate with a hair trigger even when early results appear discouraging (Exhibit A: former GM Dave Caldwell, Exhibit B: former coach Gus Bradley).
Cons: Historically, recruitment of established veterans and development and retention of young players has been problematic. Marrone and Caldwell caught lightning in a bottle in 2017, when the Jaguars reached the AFC title game and came within a quarter of reaching Super Bowl LII. But Jacksonville followed that by losing 36 of its next 48 games, its young core quickly eroding.
This small-market franchise, which has never reached the Super Bowl – the expansion brethren Panthers have gone twice – also hasn't enjoyed local support on a level with Green Bay or Buffalo. The Jags had allotted one home game to London every year since 2013. They were poised to become the first NFL team to play two games in the U.K. in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic delayed those plans. Regardless, the unusual arrangement threatens to make further competitive challenges for Jacksonville's players and coaches.
Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis
Source: Read Full Article